The year 2024 is predicted to become the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing the 1.5°C warming threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Following the second-warmest November in history, C3S reports that global temperatures will "almost certainly" exceed this symbolic boundary compared to pre-industrial levels.

This alarming trend builds upon 2023, a record-breaking year intensified by El Niño, which combined with human-driven climate change to push temperatures to unprecedented levels.

November 2024, marked by a series of destructive typhoons in Asia and severe droughts in southern Africa and the Amazon, was 1.62°C warmer than the average November before industrial-scale fossil fuel use. It was also the 16th of the last 17 months to show a temperature anomaly exceeding 1.5°C compared to the 1850-1900 baseline, according to Copernicus data.

While the Paris Agreement aims to cap global warming at 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, these targets refer to long-term trends. Currently, the Earth’s warming averages around 1.3°C, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that the 1.5°C threshold could be surpassed between 2030 and 2035, depending on greenhouse gas emissions trends.

Despite international commitments, the world is not on track to reduce CO₂ emissions sufficiently to avoid worsening climate impacts, including droughts, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall. Current government policies could lead to a catastrophic 3.1°C increase in global temperatures by the end of the century, far exceeding promises made under the Paris Agreement, according to the UN Environment Programme.

Governments have until February to submit revised climate targets for 2035 to the UN. However, weak commitments from COP29 and the ongoing reliance on fossil fuels pose significant risks to achieving these goals.

In 2024, climate-driven natural disasters caused $310 billion in global damages, estimates Swiss Re, a reinsurance group. The persistence of extreme heat and melting Antarctic ice, alongside declining cloud cover and floating ice, exacerbate global warming trends, according to a study published in Science.

Notably, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to contribute further to record-breaking heat, as warming during December and January typically carries over into the rest of the year. Climate expert Robert Vautard notes that while 2024 temperatures align with predictions, a lack of significant cooling in 2025 would raise concerns.