The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) registered a year-over-year decline in March, showing a negative growth rate of 0.9%. This downturn follows a slight increase of 0.2% in January and a decrease of 0.6% in February, as reported by the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) of the University of Cyprus.

A press release from CypERC noted that the fluctuations in the CCLEI reflect the volatility and uncertainty in the international economic and geopolitical landscape. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with military tensions in the Middle East, has heightened global uncertainty, affecting Cyprus' economy more than in the previous year.

In March 2024, both the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) for the euro area and Cyprus recorded negative year-over-year growth rates. However, Cyprus' drop was more significant than that of the euro area, indicating increased economic uncertainty in the island nation.

Several factors contributed to the CCLEI's negative growth in March. Notably, a decline in property sales contracts and a rise in the international Brent Crude oil price played significant roles. The increase in oil prices, the first since December 2022, deepened the negative growth trend.

While some domestic factors helped moderate the overall decline, recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose further challenges. This instability could impact oil prices and inflation, potentially affecting the CCLEI's growth rate in the short term.

According to CypERC, the CCLEI growth and the broader prospects for Cyprus' economy are closely tied to the international economic and geopolitical environment, with the year-over-year CCLEI growth rate declining in March 2024.