The H2Zero Research Unit of Frederick University has presented a vision for Cyprus’s transition to a fully carbon-free hydrogen economy between 2030 and 2060.

According to a press release, a mathematical optimization model has been developed to assess an integrated strategy across the energy, water, and transport sectors. The model incorporates investments in renewable energy, hydrogen infrastructure, and small modular reactors (SMRs).

The study finds that complete decarbonization by 2060 is achievable, with hydrogen expected to play a key role, especially in transport, reaching 40% market penetration in the sector.

The cost of green hydrogen production is projected to decrease by 66% by 2060, while electricity surpluses will be entirely eliminated through the use of electrolysis units and electric interconnections.

The report suggests that SMRs could play a critical role post-2035, supporting both pink hydrogen production and desalination efforts.

Energy security is to be ensured through interconnections with European partners, while water security will be strengthened by increasing desalinated water production.

The country’s electricity generation will gradually shift from fossil fuels to renewables and SMRs. Solar capacity is projected to grow from 800 MW today to 7,000 MW by 2060, with SMRs contributing 2,860 MW.

Hydrogen production is expected to exceed 500,000 tonnes per year, with green hydrogen costs falling below $2/kg after 2050, averaging $1.78/kg by 2060.

Economically, annual investments are projected at $1 billion, while cumulative savings are estimated at $38.2 billion from reduced fuel imports and $14.6 billion from avoiding carbon emission allowances. The annual cost of vehicle ownership is expected to drop by $3,200 per vehicle by 2040.

Based on simulation results, several policies are proposed:

• Investment in electrolysis infrastructure to accelerate green hydrogen production

• Gradual phase-out of fossil fuels starting in 2030 and complete removal by 2045

• Deployment of SMRs from 2035 to provide clean baseload power

• Incentives in the transport sector to achieve 40% hydrogen penetration by 2060

Further recommendations include coordinated planning between water and energy sectors to align desalination with renewable energy availability, the development of hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and strategic export partnerships with European countries.

Overall, the transition to a hydrogen economy is deemed both technically feasible and economically viable. The integrated approach across energy, water, and transport sectors shows how targeted investment can achieve carbon neutrality, energy and water security, and clean transport solutions.

Professor Andreas Poullikkas, Head of the H2Zero Research Unit and Professor of Energy Systems at Frederick University, explains that the mathematical model developed shows Cyprus can achieve carbon neutrality with the right planning and timely investment—without compromising economic prosperity.

“Our vision is a Cyprus that exports clean energy, secures affordable and stable water, and moves with clean technologies. All based on hydrogen,” he notes. He also invites young scientists to join this national effort through research programs and funded PhD opportunities.