Echoing his “America First” trade agenda, U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the European Union could soon face a new wave of tariffs unless European nations boost their purchase of American oil and gas. The announcement has stirred alarm among EU member states, and Cyprus—despite its modest share of U.S. trade—is bracing for potential ripple‐effects on its key export industries.

Trump’s recent comments have reiterated his long-standing criticism of Europe’s trade balance with the United States. Citing a staggering U.S. trade deficit with the EU, the president warned that unless the bloc steps up its import of American energy products, “it’s TARIFFS all the way” for European goods. His threat has added to an already volatile trade environment, as both sides navigate protectionist rhetoric and the risk of retaliatory measures .

Cyprus' total annual exports to the United States amount to approximately €25 million, while, on the other hand, Cyprus imports products from the U.S. worth around €160 million per year, including a significant number of pharmaceuticals and electronics.

According to trade data, the key products Cyprus exports to the United States include:

• Halloumi and Other Dairy Products: With halloumi alone estimated at around 10 million euros, this category represents the highest-value item.

• Salt: Exports of salt are valued at just under 1 million euros.

• Olive Oil and Fruit Juices: With olive oil exports near 700 thousand euros and juices around 400 thousand euros, these sectors contribute only marginally to the overall trade volume.

Thus, even if Trump’s tariffs on European goods were to be implemented, the direct impact on these niche products is expected to be negligible. Cypriot halloumi, for instance, remains in high demand internationally and is not projected to lose competitiveness in the U.S. market.

While Cyprus may largely escape direct damage from U.S. tariffs, the broader economic context presents a different challenge. As emphasized by both local trade experts and industry commentators, the risk to the Cypriot economy does not stem from diminished U.S. demand for its relatively small export basket. Instead, the vulnerability arises from Cyprus’ close economic ties to larger European markets—particularly those of France and Germany, which are likely to be hit hard by any sweeping U.S. tariff measures.

If Trump’s tariffs were to disrupt global trade and weaken the export performance of major European economies, the knock-on effects would likely lower overall demand within the EU. This, in turn, could reduce Cyprus’ export opportunities indirectly, affect investor confidence, and contribute to inflationary pressures linked to a stronger U.S. dollar. In other words, even though Cyprus’ direct trade with the U.S. is minimal, its integration into the wider European economic fabric means that a disruption affecting leading economies could eventually impact the island nation.

Meanwhile, EU officials have already begun discussing a coordinated response to mitigate potential trade disruptions, with some advocating for reciprocal measures and others proposing incentives to increase U.S. imports of European products.