According to the Climate Watch Advisory Group of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), rainfall levels in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean are expected to be significantly lower than seasonal averages from March 10 to March 21, 2025. This forecast suggests an unusually dry period over the next 12 days, affecting multiple regions, including Cyprus.

The Meteorology Department reports that weekly climate simulations conducted by the German Meteorological Service (DWD), in collaboration with the French and Russian meteorological services, confirm a trend of reduced weekly precipitation and prolonged dryness.

Total weekly rainfall in the affected areas, including Cyprus, is expected to be below 10mm, with some regions potentially experiencing zero precipitation.

Due to the dry conditions observed in previous weeks, soil moisture levels and river flows remain low, potentially affecting winter crops and leading to a notable reduction in natural water availability.

The Climate Watch Advisory Group’s Advisory Report 202502 highlights that the Eastern Mediterranean and Eastern Ukraine will experience below-average rainfall over the coming 12 days. The most affected countries include:

• Cyprus
• Turkey
• Syria
• Ukraine (Eastern regions)

Between February 28 and March 6, 2025, Cyprus recorded less than 10mm of rainfall. Additionally, in comparison to climatological averages (1991-2020) for February 20 to March 6, Cyprus has received up to 10mm less rainfall than expected for this period.

The accuracy of this forecast is estimated at:

• 70%–90% for the period March 10-15
• 60%–80% for the period March 16-21

As of March 12, 2025, high-pressure systems dominate the Eastern Mediterranean, bringing dry and warm conditions with little wind activity. In contrast, Western Europe is experiencing a low-pressure system, resulting in severe weather patterns.