UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ Personal Envoy for the Cyprus issue, María Ángela Holguín, returns to Cyprus today (26/1). During her renewed presence on the island, the Colombian diplomat will hold separate meetings with President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman. A new joint meeting between the two leaders, in Holguín’s presence, is scheduled for Wednesday, 28/1.

As Offsite writes, it is noted that Wednesday’s trilateral meeting will be the second involving Holguín, Christodoulides, and Erhürman, following an earlier meeting held on 11 December. That previous trilateral concluded with a significant clarification, as Nikos Christodoulides secured confirmation from the Turkish Cypriot leader regarding the interpretation of Political Equality—namely, that it aligns with the relevant UN resolutions, rather than the concept of Sovereign Equality promoted by former Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar and Ankara.

Political Equality and Preparations for a New Informal Conference

At the same time, the two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to participate in the next informal meeting in an expanded format to be convened by the UN Secretary-General. However, despite 40 days having passed since their last meeting, no update has been provided regarding the scheduling of a new five-party conference on the Cyprus issue.

It is recalled that the United Nations had initially aimed for the new expanded Cyprus conference to take place before the end of 2025. This goal, however, proved unattainable due to conditions set by both the new Turkish Cypriot leadership and Ankara regarding their participation.

Although no official timelines exist, diplomatic sources indicate that the new informal five-party conference on Cyprus is now being tentatively placed within the first quarter of 2026, with no formal confirmation from the UN to date. Nevertheless, the return of the Personal Envoy to Nicosia is expected to signal developments, as it will clarify whether a new five-party meeting can be convened in the near future.

During the upcoming joint meeting with the two leaders, María Ángela Holguín is expected to seek agreement on certain confidence-building measures (CBMs), in order to demonstrate momentum in the process, particularly on secondary issues such as CBMs.

It is worth noting that the Personal Envoy has long conveyed that any new informal 5+1 conference must be well prepared and have realistic prospects of advancing the process. The convening of a new five-party meeting, however, requires acceptance by all parties involved, with Ankara and Tufan Erhürman known to be setting conditions for a return to the negotiating table.

Two Key Questions Ahead of Wednesday’s Trilateral

Based on the above, Wednesday’s trilateral meeting (28/1) is expected to revolve around two key questions.

First, whether it will be possible to move forward with planning a new informal five-party conference on the Cyprus issue in the coming period.

Second, whether the two leaders will be able to reach agreement on a number of confidence-building measures.

It is noted that, with regard to confidence-building measures, the issue that has so far failed to progress concerns the opening of new crossing points.

It is recalled that during their previous meeting, Christodoulides and Erhürman agreed to focus on reaching agreements as soon as possible, particularly on the opening of new crossing points, the issue of Halloumi, and the construction of pipelines from the Water Treatment Plant in occupied Mia Milia.

They also agreed to increase staffing for services required at crossing points and welcomed the works underway to widen the road at the Agios Dometios crossing, expressing hope for their completion in the coming months.