With just weeks to go before the Turkish Cypriot leadership elections on October 19, a new opinion survey indicates that Republican Turkish Party (CTP) leader Tufan Erhürman has opened a significant lead over incumbent Ersin Tatar.

According to the quarterly poll by the Center for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS), Erhürman secures 50.4% of voter support, enough for a first-round victory. Tatar follows with 40.6%, a gap of nearly 10 percentage points. Independent candidates remain marginal, with Mehmet Hasgüler polling at 1.2% and Arif Salih at 0.2%.

The same survey suggests CTP is also consolidating its dominance ahead of possible parliamentary elections, drawing 42.25% of the vote compared to 34.21% for Tatar’s National Unity Party (UBP). Smaller parties trail in single digits.

Tatar, however, is intensifying his campaign and framing himself as the candidate of Turkey. Citing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s speech at the UN General Assembly urging recognition of the breakaway north, Tatar reiterated that “the only viable path” is a two-state solution in Cyprus. He expressed gratitude for Ankara’s “constant support,” pointing to major projects financed by Turkey, including the presidential compound and the water pipeline linking the island to Anatolia.

In campaign speeches, Tatar has also hit back at recent remarks by President Nikos Christodoulides during Cyprus’s October 1 parade, claiming they reflected a Greek Cypriot policy of “domination and imposition.” He criticized the display of Greek F-16 fighter jets, describing it as proof of a hostile mentality.

Meanwhile, Erhürman’s growing lead has fueled confidence among his supporters, with Turkish Cypriot press reporting that his campaign is gaining momentum across the north. The CTP leader, seen as favoring a federal solution under UN parameters, has positioned himself as the main alternative to Tatar’s Turkey-aligned hard line.

With international developments also influencing the climate, the political temperature in the north is rising. Both candidates are sharpening their messages in what is shaping up to be a decisive election for the direction of the Turkish Cypriot community.