The European Union may one day need to mine the Moon to secure the raw materials vital for its clean energy transition, according to the European Commission’s new Strategic Foresight Report, published Tuesday.

According to POLITICO, the annual report warns that the global order is fracturing, and Europe can no longer rely on non-EU countries for critical minerals such as lithium, copper, nickel, and rare earths — all essential for renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles. The Commission fears that resource-rich nations could form alliances to restrict access and drive up prices, mirroring OPEC’s influence on oil.

Luxembourg has already staked its claim as the EU’s space mining hub, eyeing robotic extraction of metals from the Moon and asteroids. The Commission estimates that space resources could generate up to €170 billion by 2045. Still, industrial-scale space mining remains speculative, with no practical solutions yet for transporting materials back to Earth.

Europe’s sense of urgency stems from its growing dependence on imports. EU lithium demand is projected to be 12 times higher in 2030 than in 2020, yet the bloc currently mines none. At the same time, China dominates refining capacity, controlling nearly all global graphite processing and large shares of lithium, cobalt, and copper.

The Commission concludes that without new strategies — potentially including space mining — Europe’s strategic autonomy and green transition could be at risk.