A study commissioned by the Cyprus Economic and Competitiveness Council (ECOMPET) identifies cyberattacks, a mass influx of migrants, and the deterioration of climate conditions as the three most serious risks facing the Cypriot economy.

The risk assessment survey, conducted on behalf of ECOMPET, aimed to highlight potential risks to the Cypriot economy. The survey, which included 43 selected members from the private, public, broader public sectors, and the academic community, covered 18 possible risks.

Conducted between September 18 and October 6, the assessment excluded the conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7.

According to the survey, the highest risk is from cyberattacks and problems in the operation of critical infrastructure, with a combined risk index of 85%. Respondents assigned a probability risk index of 81% and a graveness index of 90%. This survey follows several cyberattacks last summer, including those targeting the University of Cyprus and the Department of Land Registry.

The second highest risk is the mass influx of migrants, with an 82% combined risk index, 77% probability, and 88% graveness factor. Deterioration of climate conditions ranks third, with a combined risk index of 82% (80% - 84%). Deterioration of public finances and public debt, and natural disasters such as fires, floods, and earthquakes, follow closely with a risk factor of 80%.

Other risks include the failure to execute digital transformation and a significant, prolonged increase in prices and inflation, both with a combined risk index of 80%.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and potential incidents with Turkey received a 78% risk index, as did the economic collapse of the National Health Scheme. The risk of significant deterioration in Cyprus’ corruption indices received a 77% risk index.