A lot has changed since Britons voted, by 52% to 48%, to leave the EU. Conditions a decade ago were far more favorable: Europe was at peace, globalization was expanding, and there was a strong transatlantic alliance.

Today, those conditions no longer exist, and the renewed emphasis on the continent’s security is gradually reshaping the EU. At the same time, it has become clear that Brexit harmed the British economy, shrinking GDP by at least 4%.

Public opinion has also shifted. A recent YouGov poll found that 58% of respondents believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision, while only 29% still view it as the right one.

In general, polls show large majorities favor closer ties with the EU, and several indicate that if the referendum were held today, the outcome could be as high as 62%-38% in favor of rejoining.

Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK’s minister for EU relations, has spoken of a permanent shift in security relations that could extend beyond defense to food security, energy, industry, and the economy.

This shift, initiated during last year’s UK-EU summit, covered issues such as food standards, a youth exchange program, emissions trading rules, and electricity cooperation.

The goal is to finalize these agreements before the second summit this summer. However, the overall economic benefit is expected to amount to just 0.3% of GDP over 15 years.

Government policy is now largely focused on aligning with EU regulations in an effort to reduce bureaucracy, which remains a major obstacle to trade with the bloc.

Relations could later expand into areas such as the automotive industry, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals.

However, full access to the European market requires an agreement with conditions attached, as the EU seeks to avoid selective arrangements and protect the agreements it already maintains with non-EU countries.

Despite the more positive tone under the Labor government, discussions with the EU continue to stall over Britain’s refusal to rejoin the single market, the customs union, and most importantly, to accept freedom of movement.

The first obstacle is financial, as the EU insists that access to the European market comes at a price. For example, participation in the electricity market requires contributions to cohesion funds supporting poorer member states.

The second obstacle is the lack of political consensus within Britain, as both the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to reverse any moves bringing the country closer to the EU.

Both parties oppose reopening the Brexit debate.

Still, according to Thomas-Symonds, if businesses benefit from reduced trade barriers with the EU, the prospect of reversing these arrangements becomes increasingly unlikely.

Analysts suggest Britain’s ambitions resemble a Swiss-style model, in which Switzerland participates in the EU single market for goods, but not for services.

Switzerland is also outside the customs union, allowing it to strike trade deals with third countries.

However, while the latest package of agreements between Switzerland and the EU remains pending approval, likely until 2027, the bloc is unable to offer Britain more favorable terms.

European officials have reportedly already rejected the prospect of a similar agreement for Britain.

As British attitudes soften, the biggest sticking point in negotiations appears to remain freedom of movement.

The Swiss accept this condition, though they retain the option to trigger an “emergency brake” if migration numbers rise excessively.

Several EU member states, including Denmark and Belgium, have in fact adopted stricter policies than Britain, requiring people to secure employment before arriving and limiting immediate access to social benefits.

Meanwhile, many Britons now complain about losing their own freedom of movement within the EU, and migration flows have declined significantly in any case.

A new Best for Britain poll shows that 63% support freedom of movement, compared to 22% who oppose it.

Among Labor, Green, and Liberal Democrat voters, support reaches 90%, although Conservative and Reform UK voters remain far more skeptical.

Some analysts believe that a more ambitious Labor prime minister could eventually accept freedom of movement in exchange for broader access to the single market, following a Swiss-style framework.

Sources: newmoney.gr & The Economist