By 2090, deaths in Cyprus from extreme temperatures are estimated to be 16 times higher, and deaths from air pollution eight times higher, according to a study warning of a dramatic rise in fatalities linked to climate change. The study projects that by the end of the 21st century, global deaths due to climate-related phenomena could reach 30 million annually.

The findings, from researchers at the Climate and Atmospheric Research Excellence Center (CARE-C) of the Cyprus Institute and the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC) in Germany, indicate that factors such as air pollution and extreme temperatures will have "catastrophic effects on public health."

In Cyprus, deaths due to air pollution are expected to rise from an average of 307 annually to 2,615, while deaths from extreme temperatures are projected to increase from 244 to 3,991 annually. Notably, Cyprus' population is expected to double by the end of the century, reaching 1.2 million.

In Greece, deaths linked to air pollution are expected to increase by approximately 50% by 2090 (from 5,585 to 8,278 annually), and deaths from extreme temperatures could quadruple (from 5,315 to 21,031 annually). Unlike Cyprus, Greece's population is predicted to decline from 9.55 million to 9.05 million.

Globally, deaths from air pollution are anticipated to quintuple, while fatalities from extreme temperatures could increase sevenfold. The Cyprus Institute highlights that mortality linked to extreme temperatures (heatwaves and cold snaps) could rise sevenfold, even under favorable climate scenarios.

The study warns that climate change and exposure to suboptimal temperatures will have a greater impact on public health than air quality by the end of the century, potentially affecting 20% of the global population. Climate change is expected to become one of the most critical factors influencing global public health, undermining progress in reducing air pollution-related deaths.

Projections suggest climate-related deaths could reach 30 million annually by the century's end. Beyond the alarming implications for public health, the study emphasizes the urgent need for measures to mitigate these risks and protect vulnerable populations.

The calculations are based on decade-by-decade predictions from 2000 to 2090. In 2000, approximately 1.6 million people globally died due to extreme temperatures, including heatwaves and cold snaps. By the end of the century, this number is expected to rise to 10.8 million, even under favorable climate scenarios. Similarly, deaths related to air pollution were around 4.1 million annually in 2000 but are projected to quintuple to 19.5 million by 2090.

"Climate change is not just an environmental issue but a direct threat to global public health," said Dr. Andrea Pozzer, lead researcher from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Associate Professor at CARE-C at the Cyprus Institute.

Dr. Jean Sciare, Director of CARE-C at the Cyprus Institute, added: "The study’s findings highlight the urgent need for immediate and robust action to tackle climate change and its effects to prevent the loss of lives in the near future."