Cyprus Economic Outlook: International Rating Agencies Set Dates for 2024 Assessments
Upward Trajectory in Credit Ratings Amid Global Uncertainties
International rating agencies have announced the dates for assessing the Cypriot economy in the new year, with the long-term creditworthiness on an upgrade path by two agencies, Standard and Poor's and Fitch. These agencies assigned a positive outlook to Cyprus's creditworthiness in their last assessments of 2023.
In 2024, Cyprus's long-term credit rating is three notches above the investment-grade minimum, standing at BBB High and BBB+ by DBRS Morningstar and Scope Ratings, respectively. The ratings by Standard and Poor’s, Moody's, and Fitch are at BBB, Baa2, and BBB, respectively, two notches above the investment-grade threshold.
The rating evaluations begin with Canadian agency DBRS Morningstar on March 22, followed by Scope Ratings on May 10. Moody’s is scheduled for its first evaluation on May 24, with Fitch and Standard and Poor’s following on June 7 and June 14, respectively.
The second set of evaluations starts with DBRS Morningstar on September 20, followed by Scope Ratings on October 25. Moody’s second evaluation is set for November 22, and the cycle concludes in December with two assessments: Fitch on December 6 and Standard and Poor’s on December 13.
These evaluations occur during a period of global uncertainty due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Gaza Strip. There is an expectation that Central Banks will begin reducing their key interest rates in the second half of the year due to declining inflation. However, as all international organizations note, risks to economic growth are upward, given the ongoing economic instability.
A common factor among all rating agencies for upgrading Cyprus's creditworthiness is the continuation of fiscal discipline and surpluses, which are expected to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio and sustain growth. Also, the focus is on further progress in the banking system, with continued profitability and reduced risks in bank balances, particularly in "non-performing loans." Furthermore, all agencies consider the economic activity to be supported by the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
It is noted that in the European Union, evaluations are governed by Regulation 462/2013 (CRA3), which mandates rating agencies to publish two potential evaluation dates, always on a Friday.
This year's evaluations also include the European agency (based in Berlin) Scope Ratings, which has been classified as an External Credit Assessment Institution (ECAI) since November 2023, along with DRBS Morningstar, Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard and Poor’s. These are part of the broader framework of the European Central Bank for mitigating the risk of securities used in monetary policy operations.