Gold Mining Industry Struggles with Declining Production Growth
Increasingly Scarce Deposits and Regulatory Hurdles Challenge Sector
The gold mining industry is struggling to maintain production growth as gold deposits become increasingly scarce, according to the World Gold Council.
"We saw record mine production in the first quarter of 2024, up 4% year-on-year. However, the broader picture is that mine production essentially plateaued around 2016-2018, and we've seen no growth since then," said John Reade, the WGC's chief market strategist, as reported by CNBC.
According to the international trade association's data, mine production increased by only 0.5% in 2023 compared to the previous year.
In 2022, the increase was 1.35% year-on-year, following a 2.7% rise the year before. In 2020, global gold production recorded its first decline in a decade, falling by 1%.
"I think the overwhelming story here is that after 10 years of rapid growth from around 2008, the mining industry is struggling to report sustainable production increases," Reade stated.
New gold deposits are increasingly difficult to find worldwide as many prospective areas have already been explored, he explained.
Large-scale gold mining is capital-intensive and requires significant exploration and development, averaging 10 to 20 years before a mine is ready for production, according to the WGC.
Even during the exploration process, the likelihood of a discovery progressing to a viable mine is low, with only about 10% of global gold discoveries containing enough metal to justify mining.
To date, approximately 187,000 tonnes of gold have been mined, with the majority sourced from China, South Africa, and Australia. Mineable gold reserves are estimated at around 57,000 tonnes, according to the United States Geological Survey.
In addition to the discovery process, securing government permits has become increasingly difficult and time-consuming, making mining more challenging, Reade added. Obtaining the necessary permits and licenses for mining operations can take several years.
"It is becoming harder to find gold, secure permits, finance, and operate mines," he noted.
Moreover, many mining projects are located in remote areas requiring infrastructure such as roads, electricity, and water, which raises the cost of constructing and financing these mines, Reade said.
"It is becoming harder to find gold, secure permits, finance, and operate mines," he reiterated.